BE AWARE: it is evident that audience changes in TV, Radio and Cinema mediums have taken place but one cannot calculate the extent with any degree of confidence. Television
Performance 0.00% (refer to Technical Note above)
MIW Index (CPM) -5.38%
The Print media category's dynamic is little changed over the last few releases of Inflation Watch: Performance (circulation) deflation continues to be a bigger issue than rate inflation.
As highlighted in a previous newsletter this deflation is most notable amongst Dailies which put on +5.6% in rate but lost -8.9% in performance (circulation). This got them a +16.6% MIW Index (CPM). Cape Argus' MIW Index (CPM) is the highest at 37.4% due to +13.4% Rate increase allied to a -17.4% circulation decrease. This is the fall-out of the switch to tabloid format. On a positive note the title has managed to put on circulation Q1 over Q4 for the first time since 2007. Daily Sun's circulation continues to slide, this time by -21% 2013 Q1 over 2012 Q1, yielding a 31.8% MIW Index (CPM). This daily has fallen from a high of over 513,000 daily circulation in 2007 to just over 296,000 in the latest quarter. Some major titles do buck this bad news, most notably Burger, Sowetan and The Times.
Weekend and Weekly newspapers were a mixed bunch but the category fared almost as badly as Dailies. Leading the losers was City Press which has lost some 40% of its circulation since 2008.
Consumer Magazines were also a mixed bag. Most rate increases were low, and even some decreases. Circulations of most magazines were down, FHM by -31.6%. It was good to see Fairlady continue to put on circulation which together with a minimal 1% Rate increase resulted in a noteworthy -12.4% MIW Index (CPM).
Performance -1.83% (refer to Technical Note above)
MIW Index (CPM) +16.65%
Black format stations upped their rates by +9.9% and Performance by +1.4%. Normally this would have meant an MIW Index (CPM) of less than the rate increase but the swing of 2 massive stations Kaya and Metro pushed this measure to +10.3%.
The CIW format stations, led by some of the smaller stations such as Cape Talk, Algoa and Ofm, registered a Rates of +9.58%, Performance of -3.2% so MIW Index (CPM) of a high 19.6%.
Take a look at the cost per thousands. The average Black format station comes in at R18.48 whereas the average CIW is R63.66. So evaluate rate changes against comparative values. There is value there.
Out of Home
Performance change none
MIW Index (CPM) +5.0%
Out of Home contractors are actually hiking rates but at levels lower than most other media, and somewhat beneath the CPI. Much depends on the format, advertiser demand and location. The 5% featured in the data will workout to 2.5% by the end of 2013.
Performance +3.8% (refer to Technical Note above)
MIW Index (CPM) -3.6%
As mentioned earlier the Cinema Index is now worked on the top 15 Ster-Kinekor houses (142 screens). Cinemark advise no increase in real average rate over 2012 Q1, a marginal increase in attendance because of better Hollywood/Bollywood products and so a decrease in MIW Index (CPM).
MIW Index (CPM) +6.3%
Some of the asking rates for the top 8 Online sites tracked in Inflation Watch have increased and so hiked the category. Be aware that because of inventory availability many sites continue to offer massive discounts, seemingly at levels higher than any other medium, and so build this factor into any evaluation. All of the sites tracked charge on a cost per thousand basis so the performance changes, which are significant for the medium, can be factored out of the calculations.
Total All Media
MIW Index (CPM) +5.07%
In Summary - rates indicate a continued slowdown over previous periods, largely due to a minimal increase in Free-to-Air and a decrease in Paid TV's rates. Remember there is no Performance reading for TV.
Of special interest is that 2012 yielded the lowest Rate Index (+3.98%) since the analysis started back in 1986.
It is possible that 2013 will be even lower.